The Critics' (Second and Third) Choice Award

Do the Brit Awards provide evidence of sexism in the record industry? This year they have been called out for a lack of female nominees. In particular, it has been noted that the candidates for the most prestigious award of the night, the one given out for Album of the year, are essentially a duplication of the names for the Male Solo Artist award.

Geoff Taylor, chief executive of the BPI and the Brit Awards has defended these shortlists, stating that the Brits are ‘a reflection of what's going on in the business. There’s been a lot of success for male acts in 2019 – and with grime and hip-hop doing very well, they are more male-dominated genres’. While this statement would appear to absolve the record industry of any responsibility for the male orientation, Taylor further excuses the Brit Awards on the grounds that there have been more female nominees and winners in previous years.

The Critic’s Choice award would appear to back up his claim. Inaugurated in 2008, its first winner was Adele. Since then, half of the winners have been female artists and each of these artists has gone on to have considerable success. This year the trophy has been renamed as the Rising Star award. It’s first winner – Celeste – is female too.

What interests me here, though, is the artists who were shortlisted for the Critic’s Choice award but didn’t win the trophy. If we look at their careers, a different picture emerges:

2008. Winner: Adele.

Runners up:

·      Duffy – had huge success with her first album Rockferry (2018) which sold over two million copies in the UK. Endlessly (2010), did not do as well. Since then there has been a hiatus in Duffy’s music career

·      Foals – have enjoyed a sustained and successful career, releasing six albums between 2008 and 2019, the last of which made it to number one in the UK

2009. Winner: Florence and the Machine

Runners up:

·      Little Boots - released three albums between 2009 and 2015, but nothing since then.

·      White Lies – have released five albums to date, with diminishing returns

2010. Winner: Ellie Goulding

Runners up:

·      Marina and the Diamonds - four moderately successful albums over the last ten years, all on Atlantic Records. The second of these, Electra Heart, topped the charts in the UK, but was the lowest selling number one album of the 21^st century

·      Delphic - an all-male alternative dance band who released albums in 2010 and 2013, the latter of which reached 77 in the UK chart. They do not appear to have released anything since 2014, albeit that one of the members is now part of a songwriting collective known as ‘The Six’, which has had some chart success

2011. Winner: Jessie J

Runners up:

·      James Blake – has released four successful and internationally acclaimed albums to date

·      The Vaccines – have released four albums and are doing OK despite some line-up changes

2012: Winner: Emile Sandé

Runners up:

·      Maverick Sabre – a male English-Irish vocalist/rapper who has released three albums: Lonely Are the Brave (2012) on Mercury records, reached number 2 in the UK; Innerstanding (2015) on Mercury, reached number 41; When I Wake Up (2019) on Famm, reached number 46

·      Michael Kiwanuka – has released three albums between 2012 and 2019 and is doing fine

2013. Winner: Tom Odell

Runners up:

·      AlunaGeorge - an electronic duo featuring a female singer and male producer, who have released two albums: Body Music (2013) on Island, reached number 11; I Remember (2016), also on Island, reached number 71

·      Laura Mvula - is brilliant, but has released only two albums: Sing to the Moon (2013) and The Dreaming Room (2016), both on RCA (Sony). She was dropped by the label in 2017

2014. Winner: Sam Smith

Runners up:

·      Ella Eyre - released one studio album Feline (2015) on Virgin EMI, which went gold. She is apparently releasing a new album on Island Records

·      Chlöe Howl – a solo album was intended for 2014 but was never released. She left her label, Sony music, and is releasing singles and EPs but with no chart success

2015. Winner: James Bay

Runners up:

·      George the Poet – a spoken word artist/poet/rapper who was signed by Island, but left the label ahead of the release of his debut album. Since this time he has concentrated on poetry instead

·      Years & Years – have released two albums. The first, from 2015, went platinum in the UK, the second, from 2018, only achieved silver, but the band still garner considerable publicity

2016. Winner: Jack Garratt

Runners up:

·      Frances – a female singer/songwriter who released one album in 2018, on Capitol, which reached 43 in the UK chart. She has released nothing since 2017, but has had credits since then as a songwriter

·      Izzy Bizu – a female singer/songwriter who released an album in 2016 on Epic records, which reached number 23 in UK. Released a single in 2019 but with no chart success

2017. Winner: Rag’n’Bone Man

Runners up:

·      Anne-Marie - released a studio album in 2018, which went gold. Her singles have done well too

·      Dua Lipa – her 2018 debut album went platinum. A new album is due for release in April this year

2018. Winner: Jorja Smith

Runners up

·      Mabel – released her debut album in 2019, which went silver. Has had a decent-sized hit single with ‘Don’t Call Me Up’

·      Stefflon Don – a female rapper who has not yet released an album. She had a top ten single in 2017, but no great success with her recent releases

2019. Winner: Sam Fender
Runners up:

·      Lewis Capaldi – his debut album is a double platinum seller

·      Mahalia - released an album in 2016 that didn’t do much. Her 2019 album reached number 28 in the UK charts.

What does this tell us?

            First, that in almost all cases the winners have had greater commercial success than the runners up. The only exceptions are that last year’s winner, Sam Fender, who has been outsold by Lewis Capaldi. It is also arguable that James Blake has had a more stellar career than Jessie J. Meanwhile, Dua Lipa’s debut album sold less than the debut by Rag’n’Bone man but it looks as though she will have greater international success than him in the immediate future.

            Second, that the lack of success amongst runner’s up is alarming. Out of the twenty-four artists who were finalists but missed out on winning the Critic's Choice award only eight have had major British or international success (Foals, James Blake, Vaccines, Michael Kiwanuka, Years & Years, Anne-Marie, Dua Lipa, Lewis Capaldi). Two more acts have had moderately successful careers (White Lies, Marina and the Diamonds), while the fate of two other acts (Mabel and Mahalia) is too close to call. This leaves twelve acts who have either stopped making music, been dropped by their labels or achieved only modest returns (Duffy, Little Boots, Delphic, Maverick Sabre, AlunaGeorge, Laura Mvula, Ella Eyre, Chlöe Howl, George the Poet, Frances, Izzy Bizu, Stefflon Don). The categorization of some of these artists could be debated, but it is nevertheless the case that more of the runners up have failed than have succeeded. It could also be argued that failures always outnumber successes in the record industry, but it should be noted that here we are dealing with acts that have been prioritized by their labels. They have been signposted towards the critics. They have received considerable backing and yet this has still not paid off. The Critics’ Choice award is indicative of the fact that the chances of success have narrowed. Vast swathes of music are made available in the streaming era, but the concomitant reaction to this tyranny of choice is that the music and media industries are focussed on a mere handful of artists.

            And there is a third thing that is revealed. Prioritization is even more concentrated if you are a female artist. It is a notable achievement that nineteen of the thirty-six artists nominated for this award are female. However, it is also notable that there are only three male acts among the twelve nominees whose musical careers have ended in failure. The chances are harder if you are a woman. There is no year in which a female artist won the award and a female runner up has also achieved sustained success. It would appear that the UK music business can only wish upon one female star at a time.

How do you like your Hits: Overdetermined or Underdetermined?

It’s amazing that any wannabe artist thinks that they could be signed on the strength of their demo recordings. And maybe nobody ever is. Perhaps the procedure exists in order to give musicians (and audiences) the impression that success is the result of music alone.

            There are at least two reasons why it’s impossible to judge an act’s potential from its demos. One is that the success of a recording is overdetermined. Record companies line up a number of causes in order to effect a hit. The music if obviously important, but so are the various promotional activities that are put in place. Chief amongst these is the creation of a ‘star text’. As Andrew Goodwin has pointed out, there are various narratives at play in every recording. One of these is the narrative of the song; another is the narrative of the star. They reflect upon each other. The star’s life forms part of the story of the song, and the song forms part of the star’s story. Unsigned artists face a problem: they have no narrative depth. Hence the record companies’ conservatism when it comes to signing acts. Hits maybe the surest way of creating stars, but stars are the surest way of creating hits.

            The other difficulty in judgement comes from the fact that hits are underdetermined. They are launched into the world with no guarantee that they will be a success. This isn’t just because artists and record companies don’t know what they are doing and can’t judge the mood of the public. On the contrary, the most knowing popular music is made with full consciousness that it can’t assume the activities of the public. It is deliberately unfinished. The skill lies in allowing some room in the music for ‘articulation’, ‘participatory culture’, and all those other re-appropriative tactics that cultural theorists delight in, while at the same time ensuring that this audience activity doesn’t lose cite of the original recording. Here we come full circle. A star text both helps to make these reworkings possible, as well as to keep them grounded; just think of all the audience activity that takes place around a Madonna or a Morrissey, as well as the sales of recordings that these artists generate. Once again, this causes problems for anyone judging a demo recording. How on earth can they foretell the audience’s interest, not just in taking the music up, but also in taking it over?

Here Comes Success

Most popular music biographies, whether in print or on film, have the same lacuna. They deal well with the pre-fame years. This period is often covered in great detail, particularly in musicians’ autobiographies, which may say something about the arrested development that fame forces upon its recipients. Music biographies also deal reasonably well with the years of the fame, albeit that this period frequently turns out to be more dull than the pre-fame years.

What is missing or what tends to be obfuscated is how this fame is achieved. There is usually a quick leap between obscurity and mass adulation. This can be frustrating, particularly for those who want to have similar success. The aspirant musician is left with no clue as to how it is achieved.

            There are various possible reasons why the attainment of success is glossed over. One is that artists and their employers would like it to be mystified. The work that goes into making it is either more prosaic or more undignified than they would want to be made known. Another reason is that the success might not be as ‘popular’ as it has commonly appeared. The cash nexus between the artist and fan might be superseded by various behind-the-scenes deals.

            Or perhaps the attainment of success genuinely is peculiar. Artists may well have made it without knowing quite what has happened. One of the filmic conventions for demonstrating rapid success is to show a montage sequence of escalating hysteria, accompanied by swirling media headlines documenting the artist’s rise. I used to be frustrated with these, but have come to think that this maybe is how success feels. Take-off can be so sudden that it feels as though it has taken place in jump cuts. Meanwhile, the newspaper headlines neatly summarise the role of the media in both covering and amplifying success.

            The second episode of ‘Cilla’ was on British television last night. This three-part drama documentary is charting the career of the singer Cilla Black. The first episode was concerned with her pre-fame years. Last night’s episode documented the arrival of fame. Unusually, it was more interesting than the early years. It also made a better stab than most at communicating how the attainment of success feels. It helped that the great Sheridan Smith was playing the lead role. It also helped that the true Cilla story contains elements that are both dramatic and sudden. She moved quickly from being on the fringes of the Beatles’ scene (famously being the cloakroom attendant at the Cavern Club) to being a signed recording artist.

            That said, the programme glossed over a great deal and included much dramatic licence. Although Cilla was shown in the recording studio, there was no indication that she promoted her releases. Instead, she was shown back in Liverpool, waiting for news from the distant metropolis. She received this news via a public call box. While there might have been an element of truth in this, surely she could have listened to the chart run-down on a radio. Nevertheless, I found myself sharing her elation when she heard that she had made it to number one. I found myself thinking, yes, that is what it must feel like. This is because it showed Cilla on the cusp and in-between. It was her who had made the hit record, but its ascension was happening apart from her, while she remained in her old world. The phone box was a portal to new places and to different time-frames, just as it is in Dr Who. Maybe I just want the mystification to remain.

If at first you don't Succeed, should you Try, Try, Try Again?

I have something in common with many other Popular Music lecturers: I failed in my ambitions to become a pop star. There’s no particular shame in this. Most pop dreams end in failure. It has been estimated that the UK has one group of musicians for every 1,000 members of the population. This would mean that at any point in time there are nearly 64,000 bands in existence. Of these, only a small percentage will gain record contracts, and of those who gain record contracts only a fraction will make a profit for their record companies. From the 1960s until the present day a statistic has been frequently repeated: only one-in-ten signed acts will succeed.

            I have something else in common with other failed pop stars turned lecturers: I want to explore the reasons for failure. The most thorough analysis of failure from the perspective of musicians comes from Michael Jones, a lecturer at the University of Liverpool and a former member of Latin Quarter, a group who were dropped by Arista Records because they couldn’t follow up their hit ‘Radio Africa’. Jones has outlined the numerous and contradictory attributes that a newly signed group needs to be successfully ‘commodified’. They are ‘small businesses striving to become huge businesses almost over-night’, and ‘yet they have no business experience, qualifications or, often, even raw acumen to help them’. They have to ‘convince record companies at all stages that what they are likely to produce is likely to sell in order that they retain the company's best efforts with regard to them’; if they don’t the record company will switch its attention to another of its signed acts. They need to have an understanding of the record company’s commitment, and yet they ‘can never truly gain this knowledge because they never truly engage with “the record company” as an entity but only with the few staff assigned to work with them’. In summary, Jones argues that most bands ‘are the victims of their own naivety in an environment that punishes the naïve’.

            Keith Negus, professor of musicology at Goldsmiths and a member of various unsuccessful bands, has produced the most thorough analysis of failure from the perspective of music industry personnel. He has argued that failure can be the result of ‘conflict’ amongst record industry departments, in particular the A&R and marketing teams, who might have different visions for an act. He has also suggested that industry staff can become demotivated due to the attitudes of acts. Some artists ‘simply refuse to cooperate’, while others denigrate the work that has been put in on their behalf. Ultimately, the will of industry staff can be affected by ‘whether they actually like the music being produced’.

            There can be a fast turnover of staff in record companies. Therefore, the people who are working with an act may have had nothing to do with signing them. This leads us to another crucial factor when determining success: timing. Jones and Negus have stressed just how much has to come together at the right time, with the right people involved, for an act to succeed. Negus has suggested that the most common scenario is ‘different staff assessing the potential of artists in different ways and developing their own agenda and goals rather than working towards a shared overall vision’. Jones has come up with an elaborate flight scheduling metaphor to explain the complexities involved:

Record-making, release and promotion can be likened to take-off and landing schedules at international airports. A time-slot is identified for departure, the necessary maintenance and boarding procedures are initiated and, once completed, the air-craft is cleared for take-off. If, for whatever reason, there are delays which prevent take-off then the aircraft must wait until another 'window' arises – and departure delays can sour the mood of passengers and crew alike as well as make for disruptions in schedules at the 'other end'.

He then points out the difference between airports and pop careers. Regarding the former, ‘complete cancellation is almost unheard of’. Regarding the latter, ‘careers of pop acts may not only be subject to delay, they can be cancelled with no redress’. Negus deepens this gloom. He argues that, although artists whose contracts have been cancelled ‘are – in theory – free to find another record company, in practice it is often very difficult’. He has two main reasons for this. Firstly, the act is now tainted and will be viewed as a ‘financial risk’ by other record companies. Secondly, the act’s music and image will probably have to be re-thought. This repackaging rarely convinces ‘sceptical’ industry gatekeepers.

            The importance of timing is reinforced by rock mythology. Would the Beatles have become famous if Raymond Jones hadn’t ordered a copy of their single ‘My Bonnie’ from Brian Epstein’s record shop? Would the Sex Pistols have coalesced if Johnny Rotten hadn’t been spotted wearing an ‘I hate Pink Floyd’ t-shirt? There is ample evidence of acts being dropped if they miss their one golden chance (see, for example, the film The Great Hip Hop Hoax).

            Nevertheless, I think that both Jones and Negus go too far. It is notable that they start their analyses of failure from their experience of being members of groups. Their scenario of ‘one chance and one chance only’ holds much truth in this respect: it is not only hard for bands to be re-signed, it is hard to keep a band dynamic intact in order to be re-signed. However, music industry practice can be less terminal (in both its medical and aviation senses) when it comes to solo acts or individual members of bands. David Bowie and Marc Bolan were both signed by a number of different record companies before they achieved major success. In a similar manner, Aretha Franklin and Jimi Hendrix were industry veterans by the time they achieved fame. More recently, artists such as Lana Del Rey and Robin Thicke have recorded for different labels before having hits.

On a personal level, most of the people I know who have succeeded in the music business have been signed and dropped by record labels, and they have been members of several different bands. In fact, it was only through failing at their first attempts that they gained the necessary experience and acumen to negotiate the commodification process. I performed in bands in Gloucestershire in the late 1980s. One of the most popular local groups was Apple Mosaic, who were signed and quickly dropped by Virgin Records. Their guitarist, Ian Dench, went on to form EMF, who recorded for Parlophone and had a number one hit in the US with ‘Unbelievable’. The singer of Apple Mosaic, Laurence Carrington-Windo, was also re-signed. His band Bedazzled released a number of singles on Columbia Records. In his case, however, he came no closer to being a one-in-ten. If at second you don’t succeed . . .